A coordinated campaign led by accounts supportive of the Popular Mobilization Forces and Iraqi militias carried numerous messages directed towards Jordan and the United States under the hashtag 'Jordan will pay the price.

On the evening of January 28th, a drone attacked the U.S. base in Jordan Tower 22, which is located at the intersection of the borders of Jordan, Syria, and Iraq. The attack resulted in the death of 3 American soldiers and the injury of dozens.

About a week later, the United States accused the 'Islamic Resistance in Iraq,' under which militias like Kata'ib Hezbollah operate, of launching the attack. Washington subsequently carried out extended retaliatory strikes over several days against targets in Iraq and Syria.

Hours after the U.S. response, the hashtag #JordanWillPayThePrice surged to the top of the timeline on the Twitter platform, amassing 10,929 tweets, with over 1,044,000 impressions and a potential reach exceeding 3.5 million, according to Meltwater, a leading social media content analysis platform.

The hashtag reached its peak on February 3rd and 4th, driven by thousands of simultaneous tweets, with 57.3% (6.2 thousand tweets) being retweets, indicating coordinated activity.

 

Inciters receive more interactions

Dozens of accounts played a significant role in promoting and spreading the hashtag on X, simultaneously garnering the highest interactions with their tweets. Many prominent accounts using the #JordanWillPayThePrice hashtag expressed support for the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces and Iran-backed militias, in addition to Houthi-affiliated Yemeni accounts."

Caricature posted by @ali_jaheid 

One of these prominent accounts is associated with Zuhair Al-Qasim, who identifies as an independent journalist. He appears on platforms affiliated with the Popular Mobilization Forces' media. Al-Qasim previously filed a legal complaint against the former Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi, accusing him of conspiring in the storming of the parliament by supporters of the Sadrist movement in the summer of 2022.

Al-Qasim wrote on his account (@pres_iq) using the hashtag: "Jordan, which benefits from Iraq's wealth, disclaims responsibility for and involvement in the U.S. airstrikes on Iraq after the honorable voice boycotted Jordan. But let every (offensive word) Jordanian know that he will pay the price for his foolishness, and #JordanWillPayThePrice sooner or later."

Al-Qasim praised the parliamentary move by Mustafa Jabbar Sand, collecting parliamentary signatures to issue a resolution "to stop selling subsidized crude oil instead of the selling at market price to Jordan due to its participation in the recent attacks against Iraq." Jordan purchases Iraqi oil at prices lower than the global market: around $16 per barrel. The rate increased from 10,000 to 15,000 barrels of crude oil starting from August 2023.

The controversial poet Ahmed Abdul Sada (@ahmadabdulsada) also participated in the hashtag. Iraqi news sources claim he incited the killing of the intellectual Hisham Al-Hashimi before his assassination in July 2020. He relayed threats from the Fatah Coalition, linked to the Popular Mobilization Forces, to launch drone and ballistic missile attacks on the UAE in protest of the election results in October 2021.

Al-Sada wrote, "By participating in the aggression against Iraq and Syria, Jordan has entangled itself in a confrontation larger than its size. Therefore, it must bear the consequences, and at that time, America will not be of any help."

Network of Fake Accounts

The total number of accounts participating in tweeting on the hashtag reached 3,580 accounts. The geographical location was unknown for more than 8,400 tweets (out of a total of 10,900 tweets), with no information on where they originated. This indicates an attempt to manipulate Twitter platform policies.

To artificially amplify the hashtag, those behind it utilized a network of fake accounts following the classic method of promoting hashtag messages. These accounts posted consistent content, including the same spelling mistakes, and were ready for publication at close intervals in timing.

In the two images below, one can observe the repetition of phrases such as "The response will be devastating and very harsh" and "The blood of the martyrs will be a complete end to America's presence in Iraq and the region."

The activity of these accounts suggests the possible entity behind the launch of the hashtag. Some tweets included the word "Hashdawi" with expressions praising the Popular Mobilization Forces and repeated sharing of images of its leader, Falih Al-Fayyadh.

In addition to messages directed towards Jordan and the United States, repeated tweets claim, "Jordan, which used to provide a safe haven for Ba'athists and terrorists, is now participating in the bombing of Iraq. They (Jordan) take oil for free, and they send planes to bomb us. They have tasted our suffering and witnessed the severity of our fire, and they will witness our revenge. We will respond double, and this is our promise."

It was noted that some tweets contained letters and numbers, possibly forming a code for classification, sequencing in publication, or just a trick to evade platform detection. This is a common practice for active fake accounts during political battles or "cheap" digital marketing for products, especially in Iraq, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia.

The fake campaign accounts, mainly originating in 2022 and 2023, were active in previous campaigns supporting quasi-military groups backed by Iran in the Middle East. They participated in campaigns criticizing Mustafa Al-Kadhimi and the Sadrist movement, and opposing the American presence in the country. The latest of these campaigns was the hashtag #NoCompromiseWithTheKiller, in which at least 9,000 tweets were circulated. This was a response to the U.S. airstrike on February 7th that resulted in the assassination of a leader from the "Hezbollah Brigades" in Iraq, Wissam Al-Saadi.

Russian propaganda accounts in Arabic, such as the account "Russian Media," attempted to leverage their popularity using the hashtag. Also, the account named "Media Resistance Platform" - @group_meydan1 - which also has a channel on Telegram, stood out. Its goals are defined as "launching and supporting hashtags for all resistance factions."

The analysis reveals a coordinated campaign led by accounts that are accustomed to promoting the propaganda of the Popular Mobilization Forces and Iranian-backed militias in Iraq. This campaign conveyed various messages directed towards Jordan and the United States. The hashtag "Jordan will pay the price" was used to spread allegations of Jordan's involvement in American airstrikes in Iraq, prompting the Jordanian army to eventually issue an official statement to deny this narrative.

A network of fake accounts was implicated in previous organized campaigns within the propaganda machinery of groups aligned with Iran. There are indications of manipulation of Twitter's policies, both in terms of the majority of tweets coming from accounts with unknown geographic locations and the high rates of retweets.