Despite there being real calls by some Shiites in Lebanon to de-escalate the tensions at the border, a coordinated campaign was launched by a group calling itself "Shia Against the War," driven by Saudi and Emirati participation.

Since October 8, 2023, Hezbollah has been active militarily along the Lebanese border with Israel, carrying out rocket strikes and drone attacks on Israeli targets. As demands and initiatives to stop the war in Gaza escalate, the Lebanese-Israeli border has become increasingly tense, fueled by an increase in reciprocal strikes. The latest of these was the alleged Hezbollah strike on the town of Majdal Shams in the occupied Golan Heights, and Israel's assassination of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut's southern suburb.

Amidst these developments, several coordinated hashtags calling for de-escalation have emerged, including the hashtag #Shiites_against_the_war, which has been actively used by Saudi, Emirati, and Lebanese accounts affiliated with Christian parties. The hashtag garnered a total of 1,231 posts on X, generating 8,122 interactions (likes, retweets, and comments). The posts were viewed 138,000 times, with a potential reach of over 400,000 additional views, according to statistics from the Meltwater social media analysis tool.

The hashtag has seen spikes at various times since its inception in December 2023 and has regained activity in recent days due to growing fears of war in Lebanon. The hashtag is linked to another one, #Lebanon_Does_Not_Want_War, which amassed 167,000 posts, peaking on July 29, 2024, following the Majdal Shams strike and subsequent Israeli threats of an attack on Lebanon.

• Periods of Activity on the Hashtag #Shiites_against_the_war – Meltwater

Most Active and Influential

By June 2024, a report by Agence France-Presse indicated that at least 469 people had been killed in Lebanon, including 307 Hezbollah members and 90 civilians, while the number of Israeli casualties was 15 soldiers and 11 civilians.

Despite the presence of genuine Lebanese voices, including Shia voices, that believe another war with Israel is not in Lebanon's best interest, coordinated online groups have been actively promoting this narrative in an organized and non-spontaneous manner across several hashtags, the most prominent being “Shia Against the War.”

The hashtag emerged shortly before accounts with the same name appeared on social networks. A report by the Al Modon noted the launch of a Facebook page named “Shia Against the War” on October 31, 2023.

Al-Modon reported that the "Shia Against the War" Facebook page ran at least 14 ads since December 1, just days before the hashtag emerged. The cost of these ads amounted to $6,300, which is a significant number in a country like Lebanon. 

Later, the "Shia Against the War" Facebook page was deleted, while its accounts on X and YouTube remain active. The history of the X account's creation indicates it was established in February 2017 and has a total of 833 posts—a relatively low number considering the account's age. This suggests that the account's administrators may have removed older content to repurpose the account for the current campaign. Posts from the group's X account, @Shi3aDodelharb, contributed to generating 1,045 related posts on the hashtag.

The "Shia Against the War" group produces visual content, featuring red flags with the group's name. The group's messaging focuses on criticism of Hezbollah, often using emotionally charged rhetoric.

In addition to the social media accounts, the group launched a website on March 17, 2024. On the website, the group identifies itself as a "Shia opposition movement for Lebanon, standing against the duo that monopolizes decision-making and representation of the honorable Shia community, controlling its representation in parliament, governments, and even in the lower ranks of Lebanese state institutions and administrations." The group further states on its website: "The policy of dragging Lebanon into wars poses a blatant threat to the safety, security, and stability of the Lebanese people. Wisdom, caution, and adherence to all provisions of our Lebanese Constitution are necessary to prevent giving the enemy an opportunity to violate our land's borders, and to avoid engaging in reckless adventures at the nation's expense."

The website's header features an image of Lebanese Shia cleric Ali Al Amin, accompanied by the word "He Represents Me." Ali Al Amin is one of the prominent religious figures in Lebanon, closely associated with the "March 14" coalition, and is one of Hezbollah's most notable Shia opponents. He is also a member of the Muslim Council of Elders, chaired by the Sheikh of Al Azhar.

• Accounts Linked to the Lebanese Forces and Kataeb Parties

At least 400 accounts actively contributed to the #Shiites_against_the_war hashtag. While the hashtag was promoted as representing Shia voices opposing the war, a significant portion of the active accounts were linked to supporters of the Lebanese Forces and Kataeb parties. Additionally, there was a strong presence of Saudi accounts on the hashtag. Content on these accounts primarily focused on promoting Christian Lebanese political forces and criticizing Hezbollah. For example, the account @fayezjnahed, belonging to Fayez Nahed or Nihad, was among the prominent accounts using the hashtag. Upon reviewing its posts, it was evident that the account holder appears to be an active member of the Lebanese Kataeb Party, as the account featured the party's logo and regularly posted promotional content for the party.

Other accounts engaged in reposting content from the "Shia Against the War" account, as well as from other accounts opposed to Hezbollah and mocking Palestinian factions in Gaza. They also interacted with Saudi accounts, as seen with the account @malahoussaine.

Saudi accounts also engaged with posts on the #Shiites_against_the_war hashtag by retweeting/reposting. Among these were the accounts @althunyan_fahad and @omar7000, both of which use images of King Salman bin Abdulaziz and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as their profile pictures.

The appearance of Saudi accounts on this hashtag is not coincidental, as nearly five thousand posts from Saudi Arabia were made under the hashtag "Lebanon Does Not Want War."

Similarly, Emirati accounts interacted with posts from the "Shia Against the War" account. For instance, the account @UaeAlteneiji shared a post containing statements by Hadi Murad, a founding member of the Shia opposition movement "Taharor."

It is worth noting that although the "Taharor" movement has denied any connection to the activities of the "Shia Against the War" group, the group frequently highlights and celebrates statements made by leaders of the "Taharor" movement.

Indicators of coordinated activity

The hashtag was linked to other hashtags, including #Lebanon_doesn’t_want_war, which generated since the start of the war on Gaza 258,000 tweets at least; #Hazbollah_are_terrorists which garnered 18,700 tweets; and #1701_Now and #Lebanon_first, each with 15,000 tweets at least. 

The pattern of interactions on the hashtag shows unspontaneous and fabricated mobilization, with 69.5% of tweets being repeated as retweets/reposts (almost 855 tweets). Meanwhile, original tweets amount to only 12.8%. Typically, a high number of retweets indicates manipulation and coordinated activity to mobilize or amplify in a particular direction. In addition, about 639 tweets were published from undisclosed locations. 

Pattern of Interactions on #Shiites_against_the_war – Meltwater